Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

DSTDefense / special teams

Top 32 of 32 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 8 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 4 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	DEN D/ST	DEN	17	120	137	2
2	SEA D/ST	SEA	17	118	148	1
3	HOU D/ST	HOU	17	110	120	4
4	LA D/ST	LAR	17	109	112	7
5	GB D/ST	GB	17	108	67	23
6	PHI D/ST	PHI	17	107	115	6
7	NE D/ST	NE	17	102	106	8
8	JAX D/ST	JAX	17	102	126	3
9	BUF D/ST	BUF	17	101	92	14
10	BAL D/ST	BAL	17	99	68	22
11	LAC D/ST	LAC	17	93	102	10
12	DET D/ST	DET	17	93	83	16
13	SF D/ST	SF	17	92	54	28
14	PIT D/ST	PIT	17	92	95	12
15	KC D/ST	KC	17	92	80	19
16	MIN D/ST	MIN	17	91	101	11
17	DAL D/ST	DAL	17	90	41	30
18	CHI D/ST	CHI	17	89	92	14
19	TB D/ST	TB	17	87	82	17
20	NYJ D/ST	NYJ	17	83	36	31
21	IND D/ST	IND	17	82	77	20
22	NO D/ST	NO	17	82	82	17
23	ATL D/ST	ATL	17	80	105	9
24	CLE D/ST	CLE	17	79	119	5
25	NYG D/ST	NYG	17	77	57	27
26	CIN D/ST	CIN	17	74	53	29
27	MIA D/ST	MIA	17	74	66	24
28	CAR D/ST	CAR	17	73	93	13
29	LV D/ST	LV	17	73	59	26
30	WAS D/ST	WAS	17	73	74	21
31	TEN D/ST	TEN	17	72	62	25
32	ARI D/ST	ARI	17	71	36	31

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.