Position framework
Kicker
Updated
Why a kicker is worth thinking about
2023–2025 scoringThe gap between the best kicker and the last startable one was 63 points last season, 3.71 a week. That is not nothing, and it has widened three years running: 48, 58, 63 points.
The honest version is narrower. Getting from a top-twelve kicker to the best one is worth about three points a week; getting from a top-six kicker to the best one is worth between 1.4 and 2.2. So the decision that pays is not picking the right kicker out of the good ones. It is not ending up with a bad one.
| Season | K1 | K1 − K16 | Per week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Brandon Aubrey 177 | 48 | 2.82 |
| 2024 | Chris Boswell 184 | 58 | 3.41 |
| 2025 | Jason Myers 189 | 63 | 3.71 |
The top half sticks. The bottom half is noise.
Take the kicker top 16 as a whole and it looks random: 8 and 9 of 16 came back the following year, and a list of sixteen drawn from a pool of thirty-two repeats eight by luck alone. Most analysis of the position stops at that number and concludes kickers are unknowable.
Split the list at its midpoint and it stops being random. The top eight came back 81% of the time. The bottom eight came back 25% of the time. Against a 50% baseline those miss in opposite directions, and neither is a coin flip.
13 of 16
4 of 16
would give
| Transition | K1–K8 returned | K9–K16 returned |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 → 2024 | 6 / 8 | 2 / 8 |
| 2024 → 2025 | 7 / 8 | 2 / 8 |
| Pooled | 13 / 16 · 81% | 4 / 16 · 25% |
One caveat, stated because it is real: some of that gap is mechanical. A kicker at K16 only has to slip one place to fall out of the set, while a kicker at K1 can lose fifteen and stay in it. That buffer flatters the top half on its own, and this data cannot separate buffer from skill.
It does not change what to do about it. Whichever is driving it, last year’s top eight is a much better pool to draft from than last year’s ninth through sixteenth, and within that eight, the exact order carries nothing. Rank correlates from one year to the next at roughly zero.
The workbook
Everything above is the argument. Everything below is the record it comes from, kept as it is kept in the sheet.
Team field goal attempts
Where every team ranked for field goal attempts, five years deep. Read across a row to see how little a rank holds from one season to the next.
Top 16
| Rank | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LVRaiders | SEASeahawks | LARRams | PITSteelers | HOUTexans |
| 2 | PITSteelers | BALRavens | SEASeahawks | LACChargers | SEASeahawks |
| 3 | NEPatriots | DALCowboys | INDColts | DALCowboys | DALCowboys |
| 4 | MINVikings | LVRaiders | NYJJets | TBBuccaneers | NOSaints |
| 5 | BALRavens | SF49ers | DALCowboys | HOUTexans | LACChargers |
| 6 | ARICardinals | ATLFalcons | CHIBears | DETLions | CHIBears |
| 7 | DALCowboys | CARPanthers | HOUTexans | DENBroncos | ATLFalcons |
| 8 | INDColts | BUFBills | CLEBrowns | MIADolphins | KCChiefs |
| 9 | LARRams | NEPatriots | ATLFalcons | PHIEagles | TBBuccaneers |
| 10 | CINBengals | JAXJaguars | BALRavens | BUFBills | SF49ers |
| 11 | GBPackers | NYGGiants | JAXJaguars | BALRavens | INDColts |
| 12 | PHIEagles | MIADolphins | NOSaints | INDColts | TENTitans |
| 13 | NYGGiants | NYJJets | KCChiefs | LVRaiders | MINVikings |
| 14 | WASCommanders | MINVikings | DENBroncos | LARRams | GBPackers |
| 15 | BUFBills | TBBuccaneers | LACChargers | SEASeahawks | DETLions |
| 16 | KCChiefs | INDColts | ARICardinals | NOSaints | JAXJaguars |
Bottom 5
| Rank | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | HOUTexans | CINBengals | MIADolphins | NYGGiants | PHIEagles |
| 29 | JAXJaguars | GBPackers | SF49ers | CLEBrowns | LVRaiders |
| 30 | NYJJets | CHIBears | NEPatriots | TENTitans | CLEBrowns |
| 31 | SEASeahawks | PHIEagles | WASCommanders | CARPanthers | NYGGiants |
| 32 | CLEBrowns | TENTitans | DETLions | CHIBears | BUFBills |
Kicker scoring
The top sixteen by total points in each of the last three seasons, with the per-game rate beside it. The two disagree whenever a kicker missed time, and that gap is usually the more interesting number.
2023
| # | Kicker | Pts | /G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DALBrandon Aubrey | 177 | 10.4 |
| 2 | CHICairo Santos | 150 | 8.8 |
| 3 | INDMatt Gay | 150 | 8.8 |
| 4 | BALJustin Tucker | 149 | 8.8 |
| 5 | PHIJake Elliott | 149 | 8.8 |
| 6 | KCHarrison Butker | 147 | 8.6 |
| 7 | SEAJason Myers | 146 | 8.6 |
| 8 | LACCameron Dicker | 142 | 8.4 |
| 9 | NOBlake Grupe | 142 | 8.4 |
| 10 | MIAJason Sanders | 140 | 8.2 |
| 11 | CLEDustin Hopkins | 139 | 9.3 |
| 12 | JAXBrandon McManus | 135 | 7.9 |
| 13 | TBChase McLaughlin | 134 | 7.9 |
| 14 | CINEvan McPherson | 132 | 7.8 |
| 15 | NYJGreg Zuerlein | 130 | 8.1 |
| 16 | ATLYounghoe Koo | 129 | 7.6 |
2024
| # | Kicker | Pts | /G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PITChris Boswell | 184 | 10.8 |
| 2 | DALBrandon Aubrey | 178 | 10.5 |
| 3 | LACCameron Dicker | 168 | 9.9 |
| 4 | HOUKa'imi Fairbairn | 168 | 9.9 |
| 5 | MIAJason Sanders | 161 | 9.5 |
| 6 | TBChase McLaughlin | 160 | 9.4 |
| 7 | DETJake Bates | 154 | 9.1 |
| 8 | DENWil Lutz | 149 | 8.8 |
| 9 | BUFTyler Bass | 139 | 8.2 |
| 10 | LVDaniel Carlson | 139 | 8.2 |
| 11 | BALJustin Tucker | 138 | 8.1 |
| 12 | SEAJason Myers | 133 | 7.8 |
| 13 | PHIJake Elliott | 133 | 7.8 |
| 14 | INDMatt Gay | 132 | 8.3 |
| 15 | LARJoshua Karty | 131 | 7.7 |
| 16 | MINWill Reichard | 126 | 9.7 |
2025
| # | Kicker | Pts | /G |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEAJason Myers | 189 | 11.1 |
| 2 | HOUKa'imi Fairbairn | 178 | 11.9 |
| 3 | DALBrandon Aubrey | 177 | 10.4 |
| 4 | LACCameron Dicker | 158 | 9.3 |
| 5 | JAXCam Little | 156 | 9.2 |
| 6 | MINWill Reichard | 152 | 8.9 |
| 7 | TBChase McLaughlin | 150 | 9.8 |
| 8 | DETJake Bates | 143 | 8.4 |
| 9 | NEAndy Borregales | 142 | 8.4 |
| 10 | PITChris Boswell | 141 | 8.3 |
| 11 | KCHarrison Butker | 140 | 8.2 |
| 12 | BALTyler Loop | 136 | 8 |
| 13 | DENWil Lutz | 131 | 7.7 |
| 14 | SFEddy Pineiro | 130 | 9.3 |
| 15 | TENJoey Slye | 128 | 8 |
| 16 | CINEvan McPherson | 126 | 7.4 |
Kicker advantages
The situational lists: the roofs, the coaches who kick rather than go for it, the offenses that stall in the red zone, and the legs that reach from sixty. Some columns name kickers and some name teams; the label says which.
Home field dome
- NOCharlie Smyth
- DETJake Bates
- MINWill Reichard
- FADaniel Carlson
- ATLNick Folk
- INDSpencer Shrader
- ARIChad Ryland
- LARHarrison Mevis
- LACCameron Dicker
- HOUKa'imi Fairbairn
- DALBrandon Aubrey
Lowest 4th-down go rate
- SEASeahawks
- HOUTexans
- CINBengals
- DENBroncos
- LACChargers
- PHIEagles
- SF49ers
- MIADolphins
- PITSteelers
- MINVikings
- BALRavens
- GBPackers
2024 red zone TD % (low)
- NYGGiants
- DALCowboys
- NEPatriots
- PITSteelers
- HOUTexans
- CLEBrowns
- LVRaiders
- LARRams
- TENTitans
- INDColts
- NYJJets
- KCChiefs
2025 red zone TD % (low)
- NOSaints
- NYJJets
- LACChargers
- HOUTexans
- NYGGiants
- BALRavens
- LVRaiders
- CLEBrowns
- TBBuccaneers
- ARICardinals
- SEASeahawks
- DENBroncos
60+ yard range
- JAXCam Little
- TBChase McLaughlin
- DALBrandon Aubrey
- CINEvan McPherson
- MINWill Reichard
- FADaniel Carlson
- PITChris Boswell
- LACCameron Dicker
- NEAndy Borregales
- SFEddy Pineiro
- KCHarrison Butker
- DETJake Bates
Weather and altitude
Warm Weather
- MIAZane Gonzalez
- TBChase McLaughlin
- JAXCam Little
- SFEddy Pineiro
High Altitude
- DENBroncos
Noted alongside: NFC North: 2 Domes.
Top three
The operator’s three, with his reasoning as written in the workbook and the scoring record beside it.
01Brandon AubreyDALtop 16 in 3 of 3- 2023
- K1 · 10.4 per game
- 2024
- K2 · 10.5 per game
- 2025
- K3 · 10.4 per game
Dome, 60+ Range, top 3 finish at kicker for past 3 years (10.43 FPTS/Game), top 3 team field goal attempts past 4 years
02Cameron DickerLACtop 16 in 3 of 3- 2023
- K8 · 8.4 per game
- 2024
- K3 · 9.9 per game
- 2025
- K4 · 9.3 per game
Dome, 60+ Range, bottom 3 2025 red zone TD % (offense will improve 2026), bottom 5 4th down rate, top 5 in team field goal attempts past 2 years
03Ka'imi FairbairnHOUtop 16 in 2 of 3- 2024
- K4 · 9.9 per game
- 2025
- K2 · 11.9 per game · 15 games
Dome, Lowest 4th down go rate 2025, bottom 5 Red Zone TD % in 2024 and 2025, career 92% Field Goal Accuracy, 100% XP %, 28+ FGA in past 3 years, 100+ Points Scored in Past 3 Years (11 FPTS/G)
Value picks
Cheaper bets, and worth being clear about what they are: only a quarter of kickers outside the top eight come back the following year. Each of these has a specific reason attached: a rate the ranking hid, a ceiling already on record, or a stadium.
Chase McLaughlinTBtop 16 in 3 of 3- 2023
- K13 · 7.9 per game
- 2024
- K6 · 9.4 per game
- 2025
- K7 · 9.8 per game · 15.3 games
Improved in each of the last three years: 7.9, then 9.4, then 9.8 a game, which no other kicker in the sample did. The K7 finish is a games-played artifact: he scored at the fourth-best rate in football across 15 of them. Tampa Bay has made the top 16 in attempts in four of five years and finished bottom-five in red zone touchdown rate in 2025, and he has 60-plus range on a warm-weather field.
Eddy PineiroSFtop 16 in 1 of 3- 2025
- K14 · 9.3 per game · 14 games
Scored 9.3 a game, tied with Dicker for the fifth-best rate in football, and finished K14 only because he played 14 games. San Francisco is on the lowest fourth-down go-rate list, which is the coaching profile that sends the unit out rather than going for it. A top-eight rate at a last-round price.
Chris BoswellPITtop 16 in 2 of 3- 2024
- K1 · 10.8 per game
- 2025
- K10 · 8.3 per game
Kicked a full 17 games in each of the last two seasons and was the highest-scoring kicker in football in 2024 at 10.8 a game. The drop to 8.3 in 2025 is the regression this position always produces; the availability is what does not move. Pittsburgh is on both the low fourth-down go-rate and the 2024 low red zone lists.
Wil LutzDENtop 16 in 2 of 3- 2024
- K8 · 8.8 per game
- 2025
- K13 · 7.7 per game
Two full seasons, 8.8 then 7.7 a game, K8 then K13, which is a floor rather than a ceiling. What he has that nobody else does is Denver: thinner air carries the ball, so the 55-and-in range extends, and the Broncos sit on both the low fourth-down go-rate and the 2025 low red zone lists.
Charlie SmythNOtop 16 in 0 of 3No top-16 season, 2023 to 2025.The situation is the strongest on this list even though the record is empty. A dome, a starting job, a Saints offense on the 2025 low red zone touchdown list, and a team that has made the top 16 in field goal attempts three years running. Drives that reach the 25 and stop are exactly what pays a kicker; he just has to convert them.
2026-2027 Fantasy Football Analytics workbook, 'Defense and Kicker Stats'. Rebuilt by scripts/curated/kicker_charts.py. Games played are derived from points divided by points per game, which is the only route to them in this sheet.