Position framework
Defense / special teams
Updated
What a defense is worth
2025 scoringSeahawks scored 179 points last season and the tenth-best defense scored 127, a spread of 52 across the startable tier, or 3.06 a week. That is the gap inside the top ten, not the gap to a waiver-wire defense, which the sheet does not record.
Two ways to read it. Three points a week is roughly what separates a good kicker from a replaceable one, so the position deserves the same answer: do not pay much, and do not stream blindly either. The more useful read is underneath: the columns below say which of these finishes were built on something repeatable.
| # | Defense | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEASeahawks | 179 | 10.5 |
| 2 | HOUTexans | 164 | 9.6 |
| 3 | JAXJaguars | 144 | 8.5 |
| 4 | DENBroncos | 143 | 8.4 |
| 5 | MINVikings | 136 | 8 |
| 6 | LARRams | 136 | 8 |
| 7 | PHIEagles | 135 | 7.9 |
| 8 | CLEBrowns | 133 | 7.8 |
| 9 | PITSteelers | 130 | 7.6 |
| 10 | NEPatriots | 127 | 7.5 |
The workbook
Everything above is the argument. Everything below is the record it comes from, kept as it is kept in the sheet.
Historic finishes
The top ten in each of the last four seasons, with total points, points per game and EPA per play. Read across a rank rather than down a season: the names change almost completely, which is the first thing worth knowing about the position.
| # | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pts / G | EPA | Team | Pts / G | EPA | Team | Pts / G | EPA | Team | Pts / G | EPA | |
| 1 | SEASeahawks | 179 / 10.5 | -0.12 (#2) | DENBroncos | 179 / 10.5 | -0.12 (#1) | BALRavens | 174 / 10.2 | -0.15 (#2) | NEPatriots | 186 / 10.9 | -0.10 (#3) |
| 2 | HOUTexans | 164 / 9.6 | -0.13 (#1) | MINVikings | 158 / 9.3 | -0.09 (#3) | DALCowboys | 172 / 10.1 | -0.12 (#4) | DALCowboys | 168 / 9.9 | -0.10 (#2) |
| 3 | JAXJaguars | 144 / 8.5 | -0.11 (#3) | GBPackers | 144 / 8.5 | -0.07 (#5) | BUFBills | 157 / 9.2 | -0.08 (#9) | SF49ers | 161 / 9.5 | -0.13 (#1) |
| 4 | DENBroncos | 143 / 8.4 | -0.09 (#7) | PITSteelers | 140 / 8.2 | -0.02 (#10) | NYJJets | 155 / 9.1 | -0.13 (#3) | PHIEagles | 154 / 9.1 | -0.07 (#5) |
| 5 | MINVikings | 136 / 8 | -0.11 (#4) | HOUTexans | 139 / 8.2 | -0.07 (#4) | MIADolphins | 152 / 8.9 | -0.05 (#16) | BUFBills | 150 / 8.8 | -0.05 (#9) |
| 6 | LARRams | 136 / 8 | -0.06 (#10) | BUFBills | 133 / 7.8 | -0.01 (#12) | CLEBrowns | 151 / 8.9 | -0.19 (#1) | JAXJaguars | 139 / 8.2 | -0.03 (#13) |
| 7 | PHIEagles | 135 / 7.9 | -0.08 (#8) | SEASeahawks | 132 / 7.8 | -0.02 (#11) | LVRaiders | 146 / 8.6 | -0.07 (#11) | BALRavens | 130 / 7.6 | -0.03 (#14) |
| 8 | CLEBrowns | 133 / 7.8 | -0.10 (#5) | PHIEagles | 132 / 7.8 | -0.10 (#2) | NOSaints | 143 / 8.4 | -0.10 (#5) | KCChiefs | 121 / 7.1 | -0.02 (#15) |
| 9 | PITSteelers | 130 / 7.6 | 0.01 (#19) | LACChargers | 126 / 7.4 | -0.07 (#6) | SF49ers | 141 / 8.3 | -0.08 (#8) | WASCommanders | 118 / 6.9 | -0.08 (#4) |
| 10 | NEPatriots | 127 / 7.5 | -0.05 (#11) | DETLions | 123 / 7.2 | -0.06 (#7) | INDColts | 138 / 8.1 | -0.02 (#22) | INDColts | 116 / 6.8 | -0.03 (#12) |
The measures against the finish
Three ways of grading a defense, each kept beside the fantasy finish it actually produced. That pairing is the only place in the sheet where a measure can be seen getting a season wrong.
Success rate allowed
The share of opponent plays that gained what the down and distance asked for. Lower is better.
2025
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | 36.5% | #4 |
| HOUTexans | 38.0% | #2 |
| SEASeahawks | 39.3% | #1 |
| CLEBrowns | 39.5% | #8 |
| MINVikings | 40.6% | #5 |
| JAXJaguars | 40.8% | #3 |
| NOSaints | 40.8% | #12 |
| LACChargers | 40.9% | #14 |
| DETLions | 41.0% | #19 |
| PHIEagles | 41.3% | #7 |
2024
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| DENBroncos | 39.0% | #1 |
| PHIEagles | 39.0% | #8 |
| BALRavens | 39.1% | #11 |
| HOUTexans | 39.5% | #5 |
| CLEBrowns | 49.0% | #27 |
| LACChargers | 41.3% | #9 |
| MINVikings | 41.4% | #2 |
| DETLions | 41.4% | #10 |
| INDColts | 42.5% | #21 |
| NYJJets | 42.6% | #19 |
2023
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| CLEBrowns | 34.9% | #6 |
| NYJJets | 36.8% | #4 |
| NOSaints | 38.4% | #8 |
| ATLFalcons | 38.4% | #26 |
| KCChiefs | 38.9% | #13 |
| NEPatriots | 39.7% | #25 |
| BALRavens | 40.0% | #1 |
| HOUTexans | 40.2% | #15 |
| PITSteelers | 40.4% | #11 |
| CHIBears | 41.0% | #19 |
Amber marks a season where the measure ranked a defense top ten and the scoring did not follow.
DVOA
Defensive value over average, adjusted for opponent. More negative is better.
2025
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| SEASeahawks | -0.242 | #1 |
| HOUTexans | -0.193 | #2 |
| MINVikings | -0.150 | #5 |
| LARRams | -0.124 | #6 |
| DENBroncos | -0.104 | #4 |
| JAXJaguars | -0.101 | #3 |
| PHIEagles | -0.099 | #9 |
| DETLions | -0.074 | #19 |
| LACChargers | -0.065 | #14 |
| PITSteelers | -0.055 | #7 |
2024
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| PHIEagles | -0.162 | #8 |
| MINVikings | -0.155 | #2 |
| HOUTexans | -0.153 | #5 |
| DENBroncos | -0.124 | #1 |
| DETLions | -0.095 | #10 |
| BALRavens | -0.081 | #11 |
| GBPackers | -0.071 | #3 |
| PITSteelers | -0.060 | #4 |
| LACChargers | -0.050 | #9 |
| SEASeahawks | -0.049 | #7 |
2023
| Team | Value | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| BALRavens | -0.233 | #1 |
| CLEBrowns | -0.207 | #6 |
| NYJJets | -0.142 | #4 |
| SF49ers | -0.096 | #9 |
| DALCowboys | -0.087 | #2 |
| PITSteelers | -0.080 | #11 |
| KCChiefs | -0.050 | #13 |
| LVRaiders | -0.046 | #7 |
| NEPatriots | -0.045 | #25 |
| JAXJaguars | -0.042 | #17 |
Amber marks a season where the measure ranked a defense top ten and the scoring did not follow.
Pass rush
Getting to the quarterback and getting off the field. Simulated pressure is the only block here with values rather than an order: how often a defense fakes pressure, and how often it works.
| Defense | Frequency | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|
| TBBuccaneers | 12.4% | 41.3% |
| BALRavens | 12.4% | 44.8% |
| MIADolphins | 12.4% | 32.4% |
| MINVikings | 12.1% | 39.1% |
| JAXJaguars | 11.1% | 31.6% |
| LARRams | 10.8% | 33.3% |
| BUFBills | 10.7% | 57.9% |
| PITSteelers | 9.8% | 40.5% |
| SEASeahawks | 9.3% | 51.5% |
| KCChiefs | 9.3% | 34.5% |
Sacks
- 1DENBroncos
- 2ATLFalcons
- 3CLEBrowns
- 4MINVikings
- 5DETLions
- 6PITSteelers
- 7SEASeahawks
- 8HOUTexans
- 9LARRams
- 10NOSaintsLACChargers
Pressure Rate
- 1DENBroncos
- 2CLEBrowns
- 3MINVikings
- 4ATLFalcons
- 5NOSaints
- 6DETLions
- 7LACChargers
- 8HOUTexans
- 9LARRams
- 10TENTitans
Down Conversion Rate Allowed
- 1WASCommanders
- 2DALCowboys
- 3ARICardinals
- 4CINBengals
- 5NYJJets
- 6NYGGiants
- 7CARPanthers
- 8SF49ers
- 9INDColts
- 10MIADolphins
- 11GBPackers
- 12CHIBears
- 13TENTitans
- 14PITSteelers
- 15LVRaiders
- 16BALRavens
- 17DETLions
- 18ATLFalcons
- 19TBBuccaneers
- 20BUFBills
- 21NOSaints
- 22PHIEagles
- 23LARRams
- 24NEPatriots
- 25KCChiefs
- 26JAXJaguars
- 27MINVikings
- 28LACChargers
- 29CLEBrowns
- 30SEASeahawks
- 31DENBroncos
- 32HOUTexans
Rush Stuff Rate
- 1CLEBrowns
- 2LVRaiders
- 3NYJJets
- 4TBBuccaneers
- 5ARICardinals
- 6TENTitans
- 7LACChargers
- 8NYGGiants
- 9INDColts
- 10DALCowboys
- 11NOSaints
- 12MINVikings
- 13MIADolphins
- 14SEASeahawks
- 15BALRavens
- 16KCChiefs
- 17DENBroncos
- 18BUFBills
- 19HOUTexans
- 20JAXJaguars
- 21NEPatriots
- 22SF49ers
- 23WASCommanders
- 24DETLions
- 25PITSteelers
- 26CARPanthers
- 27GBPackers
- 28ATLFalcons
- 29PHIEagles
- 30CHIBears
- 31CINBengals
- 32LARRams
2025 columns from https://sumersports.com/teams/defensive/
Secondary
Taking the ball away, and what the offense was allowed to do through the air. The two middle-of-the-field rates describe coverage shell rather than quality. They say how a defense plays, not how well.
Interceptions
- 1CHIBears
- 2JAXJaguars
- 3HOUTexans
- 4LACChargers
- 5SEASeahawks
- 6ATLFalcons
- 7LARRams
- 8PITSteelers
- 9CARPanthers
- 10INDColts
EPA/Pass Allowed
- 1HOUTexans
- 2MINVikings
- 3JAXJaguars
- 4CLEBrowns
- 5PHIEagles
- 6DENBroncos
- 7BUFBills
- 8SEASeahawks
- 9LACChargers
- 10LARRams
Pass Success Rate Allowed
- 1PHIEagles
- 2DENBroncos
- 3HOUTexans
- 4BUFBills
- 5LACChargers
- 6DETLions
- 7JAXJaguars
- 8MINVikings
- 9SEASeahawks
- 10ATLFalcons
Middle Open Rate
- 1MINVikings
- 2LACChargers
- 3KCChiefs
- 4BUFBills
- 5SEASeahawks
- 6MIADolphins
- 7JAXJaguars
- 8ARICardinals
- 9WASCommanders
- 10GBPackers
- 11NYJJets
- 12DENBroncos
- 13TENTitans
- 14TBBuccaneers
- 15LARRams
- 16CHIBears
- 17INDColts
- 18NEPatriots
- 19PHIEagles
- 20DALCowboys
- 21HOUTexans
- 22LVRaiders
- 23CARPanthers
- 24PITSteelers
- 25CINBengals
- 26DETLions
- 27SF49ers
- 28NYGGiants
- 29BALRavens
- 30ATLFalcons
- 31CLEBrowns
- 32NOSaints
Middle Closed Rate
- 1CLEBrowns
- 2NOSaints
- 3ATLFalcons
- 4BALRavens
- 5NYGGiants
- 6DETLions
- 7SF49ers
- 8PITSteelers
- 9CINBengals
- 10LVRaiders
- 11CARPanthers
- 12DALCowboys
- 13HOUTexans
- 14PHIEagles
- 15NEPatriots
- 16TBBuccaneers
- 17LARRams
- 18CHIBears
- 19DENBroncos
- 20INDColts
- 21NYJJets
- 22GBPackers
- 23TENTitans
- 24JAXJaguars
- 25WASCommanders
- 26MIADolphins
- 27SEASeahawks
- 28BUFBills
- 29KCChiefs
- 30ARICardinals
- 31LACChargers
- 32MINVikings
Box rates
How many defenders a unit keeps near the line, and how well it does rushing four. Descriptive rather than predictive. See the findings at the foot of the page.
Heavy Box Rate
- 1MINVikings
- 2LVRaiders
- 3CLEBrowns
- 4NYJJets
- 5DETLions
- 6TBBuccaneers
- 7MIADolphins
- 8ARICardinals
- 9NOSaints
- 10ATLFalcons
Light Box Rate
- 1PHIEagles
- 2LARRams
- 3LACChargers
- 4SEASeahawks
- 5SF49ers
- 6JAXJaguars
- 7CARPanthers
- 8NYGGiants
- 9NEPatriots
- 10HOUTexans
Light Box Efficiency (4 rushers)
- 1LARRams
- 2CLEBrowns
- 3PHIEagles
- 4GBPackers
- 5LACChargers
- 6BUFBills
- 7HOUTexans
- 8NOSaints
- 9DALCowboys
- 10TENTitans
What changed
Movement on the ten defenses worth tracking, with the role each player held rather than just the name. A rotational departure and a starting one are not the same loss.
Out
- Coby Bryant (starting Safety)
- Boye Mafe (rotational pass rusher)
- Riq Woolen (CB3)
In
- Dante Fowler Jr (rotational DL)
- Bud Clark (2nd Round Safety)
- Noah Igbinoghene (CB Depth)
- Julian Neal (3rd round CB)
Out
- Derek Barnett (DL rotation)
- Sheldon Rankins (DT Rotation)
- Jimmie Ward (rotational safety)
In
- Reed Blankenship (starting Safety)
- Jadeveon Clowney (rotational DL)
- Kamari Ramsey (3rd round S/DB)
- Kayden McDonald (2nd round rotational DL)
- Sione Takitaki (LB Depth)
Out
- Devin Lloyd (starting LB)
- Andrew Wingard (starting Safety)
- Greg Newsome II (Starting CB)
In
- Ruke Orhorhoro (rotational DT)
- Dennis Gardeck (LB Depth)
- Jahlani Tavai (LB Depth)
- Albert Regis (3rd round DT)
- Jalen Huskey (3rd round Safety)
Out
- John Franklin-Myers (rotational DL)
- Dre Greenlaw (Starting LB)
- Alex Singleton (Starting LB)
In
- Tyler Onyedim (3rd round DT)
Out
- Jonathan Allen (Starting DL)
- Javon Hargrave (Starting DL)
- Harrison Smith (Starting Safety)
In
- James Pierre (Veteran starting CB)
- Jakobe Thomas (3rd round Safety)
- Caleb Banks (1st round DL)
- Jake Golday (2nd round LB)
Out
- Jared Verse (Starting DL)
- Ahkello Witherspoon (rotational CB)
- Cobie Durant (Starting CB)
In
- Myles Garrett (Starting DL)
- Trent McDuffie (Starting CB)
- Jaylen Watson (Starting CB)
Out
- Jaelan Phillips (Starting DL)
- Reed Blankenship (Starting Safety)
- Nakobe Dean (Starting LB)
- Azeez Ojulari (Rotational DL)
- Adoree' Jackson (Rotational CB)
In
- Jonathan Greenard (Starting DL)
- Riq Woolen (Starting CB)
- Arnold Ebiketie (Rotational DL)
- Jonathan Jones (Veteran CB)
- Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Rotational DL)
Out
- Myles Garrett (Starting DL)
- Devin Bush (Starting LB)
- Jerome Baker (Rotational LB)
- Shelby Harris (Rotational DL)
In
- Jared Verse (starting DL)
- Quincy Williams (Starting LB)
- Myles Bryant (Rotational CB)
Out
- Donte Jackson (Starting CB)
- Damontae Kazee (Rotational Safety)
In
- Jamel Dean (Starting CB)
- Asante Samuel Jr. (Starting CB)
- Jaquan Brisker (Starting Safety)
- Sebastian Joseph-Day (Starting DL)
Out
- K'Lavon Chaisson (Starting DL)
- Jaylinn Hawkins (Starting Safety)
- Khyiris Tonga (Rotational DL)
- Anfernee Jennings (Rotational LB)
In
- Dre'Mont Jones (Starting DL)
- Kevin Byard III (Starting Safety)
- Gabe Jacas (2nd Round DL)
Improved units
- LARRams
- PITSteelers
- NEPatriots
- HOUTexans
Regressed units
- SEASeahawks
- DENBroncos
- PHIEagles
- JAXJaguars
- CLEBrowns
Coordinator changes
14 defenses hired a new coordinator. Scheme carries further than personnel at this position. A unit keeps most of its players and changes how it plays, so this is the part of the offseason most likely to move a defense a tier in either direction.
| Hire | Track record |
|---|---|
| LACChris O'Leary | 2021-2023 Notre Dame DBs Coach, 2024 Chargers Safeties Coach, 2025 Western Michigan DC, 2025 9th in FBS scoring defense, 2nd in MAC, 19th nationally ranked total defense, won conference title |
| BUFJim Leonhard | 2024 Broncos DB Coach/Pass Game Coordinator, 2025 Broncos Pass Game Coordinator and Assistant HC, 2017-2022 Wisconsin DC: 5/6 Seasons led a Top 10 Nationally Ranked Defense, 1st, 8th, 5th, 41st and 1st in team defense, in 6 total years at Wisconsin: 1st in first downs allowed per game, 3rd down %, and yards per game, 3rd in takeaways and interceptions, and 5th in scoring defense |
| DALChristian Parker | Ex Packers Quality Control Coach 2019, 2021-2023 Broncos DBs Coach, 2024-2025 Eagles Pass Game Coordinator, Expertise in secondary development 2024-2025 Eagles 1st in passing defense with 182 yards/game and 79 opponent passer rating, 2nd lowest completion % allowed, and 9th in EPA/Play |
| GBJonathan Gannon | 2021-2022 Eagles DC, 2021 10th rated total Defense, 2022 2nd rated total Defense, 2022 Franchise Record for Sacks, 2024 HC For Cardinals allowed 22.3 points per game, improving to 15th in the NFL (highlighted by a mid-season stretch where they ranked top-10 over an 11-game window) |
| SFRaheem Morris | 4 years of Head Coaching Experience, 2 Super Bowl rings as an assistant, 2021-2022 Super Bowl Champion as Rams DC, Inheriting Saleh's Unit (Bosa, Warner, Greenlaw) |
| BALAnthony Weaver | Ex Texans DL Coach, Texans DC, Ravens Run Game Coordinator/assistant HC, and Dolphins DC 2024-2025, Dolphins 2024 4th in total defense at 314.4 yards/game (9th in pass and rush, 10th in scoring), 2025 top 15 in takeaways, sacks, and forced fumbles, 2023 Ravens DL Coach 3rd fewest rushing yards allowed per game, 1st in third down defense, and 1st in red zone touchdown % |
| CLEMike Rutenberg | 2013-2019 Jaguars Assistant LB/DB Coach, 2020 49ers Pass Game Specialist, 2021-2024 Jets LB Coach, 2025 Falcons Pass Game Coordinator, 2022-2024 Jets ranked top 5 in total defense each year, also 1st in total defense and passing defense, 8th in sacks, and 9th in scoring |
| LVRob Leonard | 2019-2021 DL/LB Coach, 2022 Ravens OLB Coach, 2023-2024 Raiders DL Coach, 2025 Raiders DL Coach/Run Game Coordinator, 2023 most single season sacks by the Raiders since 2010 (46), 2024 2nd most passes defensed by D-Line, 2025 2nd in fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt and 3rd in TFLs, Overall strong coaching for run defense, team defense leaves a lot to be desired at 25th in points during his time with the Raiders |
| MIASean Duggan | 2020-2023 LB Coach and Co-DC, 2024 Packers Defensive Assistant, 2025 Packers LB Coach, 2nd youngest NFL Coordinator, 2024-2025 Packers ranked 9th in total defense and run defense, strong LB development (Walker, Cooper, McDuffie, Hopper), |
| NYGDennard Wilson | Ex Rams, Jets, Eagles, and Ravens DBs Coach, 2024-2025 Titans DC, 2024 Titans 2nd in team defense, 4th in pass defense, 5th fewest first downs allowed, Overshadowed unit due to poor offensive performance, 2025 regression but still top 10 in sacks per pass attempt |
| NYJBrian Duker | 2022 Lions Safeties Coach, 2023 Lions DBs Coach, 2024-2025 Dolphins Pass Game Coordinator, 2024 Dolphins defense top 10 team defense, not much playcalling experience behind Aaron Glenn in Detroit |
| PITPatrick Graham | Ex Giants and Packers LB Coach, 2019 Dolphins DC, 2020-2021 Giants DC, 2022-2025 Raiders DC, Poor history of points allowed: 32nd, 9th, 23rd, 26th, 9th, 25th, and 25th (9th finishes in year 2 of rebuilds for 2020 Giants and 2023 Raiders), 2024 respectable unit with 15th in total defense, 13th rushing, 15th passing |
| TENGus Bradley | 2009-2012 Seahawks DC, 2013-2016 Jaguars HC, 2017-2020 Chargers DC, 2021 Raiders DC, 2022-2024 Colts DC, 2024-2025 49ers Assistant HC, major expertise in leading the Seahawks legion of boom, strong 2017-2029 record with Chargers (3rd, 8th, and 14th in points allowed), 2017 chargers 3rd in passing yards allowed, 2021 league leading pressure rate with the Raiders, |
| WASDaronte Jones | 2016-2017 Dolphins DBs Coach, 2018-2019 Bengals DBs Coach, 2020 Vikings DBs Coach, 2021 LSU DC, 2022-2025 Vikings DBs Coach/Defensive Pass Game Coordinator, 2022-2025 Flores Defense: top 10 in points allowed twice, top 10 in takeaways three times, top 5 in third down defense twice |
Best Inherited Jobs
- BUFBillsLeonard
- LACChargersO'Leary
- PITSteelersGraham
- GBPackersGannon
- SF49ersMorris
Worst Inherited Jobs
- NYJJetsDuker
- DALCowboysParker
- WASCommandersJones
- LVRaidersLeonard
- MIADolphinsDuggan
The Follow DC hired have a HC that will be the expected playcaller: Anthony Weaver (Ravens/Minter), Gus Bradley (Titans/Saleh), Brian Duker (Jets/Glenn), and Sean Duggan (Dolphins/Hafley)
Strong improvement chances
- Packers (Gannon): Added: Zaire Franklin, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Cisse
- Cowboys (Parker): Added: Quinnen Williams, Rashan Gary, Cobie Durant, Caleb Downs, Jalen Thompson
- Bills (Leonhard): strong scheme + Needs fit, Leonhard run game specialist + Talented Buffalo Roster
- Morris (49ers): Shanahan Scheme, Strong Roster of Bosa, Warner, Greenlaw, departure from 4-3 to 5-man front
- Weaver (Ravens): Minter HC, Added: Trey Hendrickson, Zion Young + Nnamdi Madubuike Return
Possible regression
- Browns (Rutenberg): Loss of Myles Garrett, lack of experience from Rutenberg, Departure of Schwartz in Staff, unknown offensive production
- Chargers (O'Leary): Departure of a top defensive coordinator in Minter (5th ranked defense in 2025), aging core in Mack, James, Jackson, and Perryman
- Dolphins (Duggan): Brand new GM + HC and future uncertainty, Major player selloff of Fitzpatrick, lack of major free agency signings, uncertain offensive production
Schedule
A defense is streamed against opponents, so the weeks matter as much as the unit. These are the favorable stretches, and then three views of the season as a whole.
- W3INDColts
- W5TENTitans
- W7NYGGiants
- W7ARICardinals
- W9CARPanthers
- W11LVRaiders
- W12PITSteelers
- W13MIADolphins
- W14NYJJets
- W15LVRaiders
- W2ARICardinals
- W3WASCommanders
- W9ARICardinals
- W10LVRaiders
- W6ARICardinals
- W7LVRaiders
- W9WASCommanders
- W10ARICardinals
- W1WASCommanders
- W2TENTitans
- W6CARPanthers
- W8WASCommanders
- W9NYGGiants
- W11PITSteelers
- W13ARICardinals
Full Time Fantasy Strength of Schedule
Easiest
- 1NYJJets
- 2DENBroncos
- 3BUFBills
- 4LACChargers
- 5BALRavens
- 6MIADolphins
- 7KCChiefs
- 8LVRaiders
- 9INDColts
- 10PITSteelers
Hardest
- 1DALCowboys
- 2PHIEagles
- 3MINVikings
- 4CHIBears
- 5NYGGiants
- 6CARPanthers
- 7HOUTexans
- 8ARICardinals
- 9WASCommanders
- 10JAXJaguars
Yahoo Strength of Schedule
Easiest
- 1DENBroncos
- 2CLEBrowns
- 3KCChiefs
- 4PITSteelers
- 5LVRaiders
Hardest
- 1MINVikings
- 2NYGGiants
- 3PHIEagles
- 4DALCowboys
- 5CARPanthers
Draft Sharks Strength of Schedule
Easiest
- 1NOSaints
- 2BALRavens
- 3PITSteelers
- 4NYJJets
- 5DETLions
- 6INDColts
- 7CLEBrowns
- 8LVRaiders
- 9ATLFalcons
- 10DENBroncos
Hardest
- 1PHIEagles
- 2DALCowboys
- 3MINVikings
- 4NYGGiants
- 5ARICardinals
- 6LARRams
- 7CHIBears
- 8SEASeahawks
- 9HOUTexans
- 10WASCommanders
Which numbers actually carry
Only the top ten scoring defenses are recorded, so the question a measure can be asked is narrow but clean: do its leaders turn out to be the teams that scored? A ten-team list drawn at random from thirty-two would share about 31% of its names with the scoring top ten. That is the line everything below is judged against.
Sorted that way, the split is not subtle. The measures describing how efficiently an offense was allowed to play sit at the top. The measures counting things that happened sit at the bottom, including interceptions, which are among the most directly rewarded events in scoring and are still no better than a coin flip at picking out the defenses that finished well. Turnovers pay when they come and barely repeat, which is what a rate near chance looks like.
| Measure | Hits | Rate | Verdict | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive EPA/Play | 8 / 10 | 80% | strong | |
| Down Conversion Rate Allowed read from the bottom | 8 / 10 | 80% | strong | |
| EPA/Pass Allowed | 8 / 10 | 80% | strong | |
| Pressure Rate | 7 / 10 | 70% | strong | |
| Sacks | 7 / 11 | 64% | moderate | |
| Light Box Rate | 6 / 10 | 60% | moderate | |
| Pass Success Rate Allowed | 6 / 10 | 60% | moderate | |
| Forced Fumbles | 6 / 11 | 55% | weak | |
| Interceptions | 5 / 10 | 50% | weak | |
| Pressure Rate | 5 / 10 | 50% | weak | |
| Light Box Efficiency (4 rushers) | 4 / 10 | 40% | weak | |
| Middle Closed Rate read from the bottom | 3 / 10 | 30% | at chance | |
| Middle Open Rate | 3 / 10 | 30% | at chance | |
| Rush Stuff Rate read from the bottom | 3 / 10 | 30% | at chance | |
| Heavy Box Rate | 2 / 10 | 20% | at chance |
The four at the bottom are worth keeping and worth ignoring at the same time. Heavy box rate lands below chance because stacking the box is a response to the opponent’s run game rather than a property of a good defense. Those columns describe how a defense plays. They do not say whether to roster it.
What each finish was built on
The same seven leaderboards, read the other way round: for each defense that scored, how many of them does it appear in? A finish supported across the board came from the way the team played. A finish supported by nothing came from somewhere else.
| # | Defense | Points | Leaderboards | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEASeahawks | 179 | 5 / 7 | |
| 2 | HOUTexans | 164 | 7 / 7 | |
| 3 | JAXJaguars | 144 | 4 / 7 | |
| 4 | DENBroncos | 143 | 5 / 7 | |
| 5 | MINVikings | 136 | 6 / 7 | |
| 6 | LARRams | 136 | 6 / 7 | |
| 7 | PHIEagles | 135 | 4 / 7 | |
| 8 | CLEBrowns | 133 | 5 / 7 | |
| 9 | PITSteelers | 130 | 3 / 7 | |
| 10 | NEPatriots | 127 | 0 / 7 |
The exception
Patriots scored 127 points and appear in none of the seven: not sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, pressure rate, EPA per pass, pass success rate or EPA per play. Every other defense on this list appears in at least three.
A scoring finish with no per-play support behind it usually came from return touchdowns or the sequencing of turnovers, and neither carries into a new season. Worth holding in mind against the offseason section below, which has them among the improved units: the personnel case may be right, but it is being added to a starting point lower than tenth.
The defense the data likes and the scoreboard did not
The mirror image of the row above. The Chargers appear in 6 of the 7 advanced leaderboards, everything except forced fumbles, and rank 5th of thirty-two at keeping offenses off the sticks. They did not finish in the scoring top ten at all.
A defense playing that well without the points is the cleanest case of positive regression in this sheet, and the only one that will not be priced like it. The teams above them all have a top-ten finish attached to their name; this one has the play without the reputation.
2026-2027 Fantasy Football Analytics workbook, 'Defense and Kicker Stats', defense section. Advanced columns credited to sumersports.com in the sheet. Rebuilt by scripts/curated/defense_charts.py.