Projection model
Fantasy Football Model
A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.
- Player-weeks trained on
- 153,026
- 1999–2025
- Seasons back-tested
- 20
- each fitted only on what came before
- Best gain over recent form
- 15%
- defense, where the market carries it
- Worst gain over recent form
- 7%
- the honest number for a noisy target
2026, before it happens
Every projection here rests on a record that stops at the end of 2025. Two limits are worth knowing before the board is used as a draft aid.
- No rookies. A player with no prior NFL game has no history to project from, so he is absent rather than guessed at. This is a board of returning players.
- Most of the schedule is not priced yet. The betting market has posted lines for part of the season. Where it has not, the input that carries kickers and defenses is missing, so those two boards are the softest here, and the accuracy tab shows why.
DSTDefense / special teams
Top 32 of 32 eligible
| # | Player | Team | Season | Per game | Floor | Ceiling | Prior games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA D/ST | SEA | 119 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 14.5 | 436 |
| 2 | DEN D/ST | DEN | 108 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 15.4 | 436 |
| 3 | NYJ D/ST | NYJ | 106 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 15.3 | 436 |
| 4 | LA D/ST | LAR | 106 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 14.3 | 435 |
| 5 | CLE D/ST | CLE | 101 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 14.9 | 436 |
| 6 | MIN D/ST | MIN | 99 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 14.0 | 436 |
| 7 | TEN D/ST | TEN | 99 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 15.1 | 436 |
| 8 | NYG D/ST | NYG | 97 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 14.4 | 436 |
| 9 | PHI D/ST | PHI | 96 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 13.9 | 436 |
| 10 | BUF D/ST | BUF | 95 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 13.9 | 434 |
| 11 | WAS D/ST | WAS | 94 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 14.3 | 436 |
| 12 | JAX D/ST | JAX | 94 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 13.9 | 420 |
| 13 | PIT D/ST | PIT | 94 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 14.9 | 436 |
| 14 | NE D/ST | NE | 94 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 13.9 | 436 |
| 15 | LV D/ST | LV | 93 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 15.2 | 436 |
| 16 | DET D/ST | DET | 93 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 14.6 | 436 |
| 17 | BAL D/ST | BAL | 92 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 14.4 | 435 |
| 18 | DAL D/ST | DAL | 92 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 15.0 | 436 |
| 19 | CAR D/ST | CAR | 90 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 13.7 | 436 |
| 20 | HOU D/ST | HOU | 89 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 15.3 | 388 |
| 21 | ATL D/ST | ATL | 89 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 14.7 | 436 |
| 22 | NO D/ST | NO | 88 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 13.8 | 436 |
| 23 | LAC D/ST | LAC | 87 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 15.0 | 435 |
| 24 | KC D/ST | KC | 85 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 15.5 | 435 |
| 25 | CHI D/ST | CHI | 84 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 13.5 | 436 |
| 26 | GB D/ST | GB | 84 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 13.7 | 436 |
| 27 | SF D/ST | SF | 82 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 14.1 | 436 |
| 28 | IND D/ST | IND | 81 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 13.6 | 436 |
| 29 | TB D/ST | TB | 81 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 13.5 | 436 |
| 30 | MIA D/ST | MIA | 80 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 13.6 | 435 |
| 31 | CIN D/ST | CIN | 80 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 14.5 | 435 |
| 32 | ARI D/ST | ARI | 75 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 13.9 | 436 |
Floor and ceiling are per game, not per season: the tenth and ninetieth percentile of a single week. Adding a floor across seventeen weeks would describe a year in which the same player is unlucky every Sunday, which is not a floor anybody should plan around.