Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

KKicker

Top 40 of 40 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 9 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 2 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	Brandon Aubrey	DAL	17	155	187	3
2	Jake Bates	DET	17	152	152	8
3	Wil Lutz	DEN	17	148	134	15
4	Chase McLaughlin	TB	17	146	156	7
5	Harrison Butker	KC	17	145	149	10
6	Cameron Dicker	LAC	17	144	170	4
7	Will Reichard	MIN	17	144	159	6
8	Jason Myers	SEA	17	143	202	1
9	Cam Little	JAX	17	141	164	5
10	Jake Elliott	PHI	17	139	116	21
11	Chris Boswell	PIT	17	138	151	9
12	Evan McPherson	CIN	17	134	136	13
13	Tyler Loop	BAL	16	134	131	18
14	Matt Prater	BUF	15	132	108	23
15	Chad Ryland	ARI	17	130	130	19
16	Riley Patterson	MIA	17	129	132	16
17	Andy Borregales	NE	16	128	141	11
18	Daniel Carlson	LV	17	127	103	26
19	Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU	15	126	194	2
20	Nick Folk	NYJ	16	126	127	20
21	Cairo Santos	CHI	15	125	132	16
22	Brandon McManus	GB	14	115	113	22
23	Joey Slye	TEN	16	115	135	14
24	Eddy Pineiro	SF	14	112	140	12
25	Ryan Fitzgerald	CAR	16	103	106	25
26	Andre Szmyt	CLE	16	98	107	24
27	Blake Grupe	NO	11	88	77	28
28	Matt Gay	WAS	10	80	74	30
29	Zane Gonzalez	ATL	9	70	96	27
30	Harrison Mevis	LAR	8	68	76	29
31	Joshua Karty	LAR	8	68	58	31
32	John Parker Romo	ATL	7	64	48	36
33	Mike Badgley	IND	7	57	56	33
34	Jake Moody	WAS	6	46	46	37
35	Charlie Smyth	NO	5	46	55	34
36	Spencer Shrader	IND	5	40	57	32
37	Blake Grupe	IND	5	40	52	35
38	Graham Gano	NYG	5	37	39	38
39	Younghoe Koo	NYG	5	36	24	39
40	Jude McAtamney	NYG	4	21	15	40

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.