Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2026, before it happens

Every projection here rests on a record that stops at the end of 2025. Two limits are worth knowing before the board is used as a draft aid.

No rookies. A player with no prior NFL game has no history to project from, so he is absent rather than guessed at. This is a board of returning players.
Most of the schedule is not priced yet. The betting market has posted lines for part of the season. Where it has not, the input that carries kickers and defenses is missing, so those two boards are the softest here, and the accuracy tab shows why.

KKicker

Top 30 of 30 eligible

#	Player	Team	Season	Per game	Floor	Ceiling	Prior games
1	Eddy Pineiro	SF	148	8.7	3.4	13.6	78
2	Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU	147	8.7	3.6	13.5	122
3	Zane Gonzalez	MIA	143	8.4	2.5	12.4	65
4	Cairo Santos	CHI	143	8.4	2.9	13.4	147
5	Harrison Butker	KC	142	8.4	2.4	13.5	120
6	Tyler Loop	BAL	141	8.3	3.8	12.8	16
7	Riley Patterson	MIA	140	8.3	2.9	13.4	52
8	Brandon Aubrey	DAL	140	8.3	3.3	14.0	50
9	Jake Bates	DET	138	8.1	3.1	12.7	33
10	Chris Boswell	PIT	138	8.1	2.4	13.2	149
11	Jake Elliott	PHI	138	8.1	2.7	13.5	128
12	Jason Sanders	NYJ	137	8.0	2.7	13.0	97
13	Wil Lutz	DEN	136	8.0	2.5	13.6	146
14	Nick Folk	ATL	135	7.9	2.2	13.2	237
15	Evan McPherson	CIN	135	7.9	2.9	13.7	61
16	Tyler Bass	BUF	134	7.9	3.1	13.3	65
17	Andy Borregales	NE	134	7.9	3.2	12.9	16
18	Cam Little	JAX	134	7.9	3.1	12.4	33
19	Blake Grupe	IND	133	7.8	2.5	12.5	48
20	Jason Myers	SEA	133	7.8	3.3	13.5	153
21	Cameron Dicker	LAC	132	7.8	2.8	13.3	61
22	Cade York	NYJ	132	7.8	2.6	12.7	22
23	Chase McLaughlin	TB	131	7.7	1.9	12.8	80
24	Will Reichard	MIN	130	7.7	2.6	12.4	29
25	Jake Moody	WAS	130	7.6	2.2	12.9	39
26	Matt Gay	LV	128	7.5	2.2	12.8	84
27	Joey Slye	TEN	127	7.5	2.1	13.3	97
28	Ryan Fitzgerald	CAR	125	7.3	2.4	11.5	16
29	Chad Ryland	ARI	125	7.3	2.0	12.9	45
30	Andre Szmyt	CLE	121	7.1	2.8	11.9	16

Floor and ceiling are per game, not per season: the tenth and ninetieth percentile of a single week. Adding a floor across seventeen weeks would describe a year in which the same player is unlucky every Sunday, which is not a floor anybody should plan around.

Every player on this board has at least 16 prior games, a full season. Held off it for a shorter record: Ben Sauls (2 games, would have ranked 1); Harrison Mevis (8 games, would have ranked 4); Spencer Shrader (8 games, would have ranked 21); Lucas Havrisik (11 games, would have ranked 26). The projections themselves are unchanged. The model still carries every one of them, and the full board is in the model’s own CSV.