Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

QBQuarterback

Top 40 of 62 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 11 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 4 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	Josh Allen	BUF	16	347	365	1
2	Bo Nix	DEN	17	331	305	7
3	Jared Goff	DET	17	317	297	9
4	Jalen Hurts	PHI	16	314	301	8
5	Baker Mayfield	TB	17	306	272	12
6	Matthew Stafford	LAR	17	287	350	3
7	Justin Herbert	LAC	16	283	287	10
8	Dak Prescott	DAL	17	282	314	6
9	Sam Darnold	SEA	17	282	235	14
10	Patrick Mahomes	KC	14	280	286	11
11	Caleb Williams	CHI	17	279	319	5
12	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	17	257	338	4
13	Lamar Jackson	BAL	13	251	215	20
14	Drake Maye	NE	17	245	352	2
15	Jordan Love	GB	15	237	235	15
16	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	16	229	227	17
17	Bryce Young	CAR	16	225	218	19
18	Daniel Jones	IND	13	223	226	18
19	Geno Smith	LV	15	220	174	24
20	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	14	207	161	25
21	C.J. Stroud	HOU	14	193	209	21
22	Jaxson Dart	NYG	13	192	242	13
23	Cam Ward	TEN	16	177	184	22
24	Brock Purdy	SF	9	161	177	23
25	Mac Jones	SF	11	153	130	29
26	Marcus Mariota	WAS	10	153	126	30
27	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	14	151	227	16
28	Jayden Daniels	WAS	7	147	114	33
29	Joe Burrow	CIN	8	144	135	28
30	Tyler Shough	NO	10	133	158	26
31	Joe Flacco	CIN	9	126	121	31
32	Kirk Cousins	ATL	10	121	104	34
33	J.J. McCarthy	MIN	9	117	103	35
34	Justin Fields	NYJ	9	117	143	27
35	Michael Penix Jr.	ATL	9	112	120	32
36	Spencer Rattler	NO	9	105	99	36
37	Kyler Murray	ARI	5	91	78	38
38	Russell Wilson	NYG	6	84	50	44
39	Dillon Gabriel	CLE	9	75	65	41
40	Tyrod Taylor	NYJ	6	73	60	42

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.