Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2026, before it happens

Every projection here rests on a record that stops at the end of 2025. Two limits are worth knowing before the board is used as a draft aid.

No rookies. A player with no prior NFL game has no history to project from, so he is absent rather than guessed at. This is a board of returning players.
Most of the schedule is not priced yet. The betting market has posted lines for part of the season. Where it has not, the input that carries kickers and defenses is missing, so those two boards are the softest here, and the accuracy tab shows why.

QBQuarterback

Top 40 of 57 eligible

#	Player	Team	Season	Per game	Floor	Ceiling	Prior games
1	Josh Allen	BUF	358	21.1	8.8	29.6	125
2	Bo Nix	DEN	334	19.7	8.6	27.4	33
3	Brock Purdy	SF	313	18.4	9.2	27.0	48
4	Justin Herbert	LAC	310	18.2	7.8	27.3	94
5	Caleb Williams	CHI	307	18.1	7.6	25.6	33
6	Drake Maye	NE	304	17.9	8.9	27.3	29
7	Patrick Mahomes	KC	302	17.8	9.1	26.6	125
8	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	301	17.7	9.3	25.6	76
9	Jayden Daniels	WAS	291	17.1	4.7	26.5	23
10	Joe Burrow	CIN	290	17.0	8.3	25.7	76
11	Jalen Hurts	PHI	288	16.9	6.6	26.9	91
12	Jared Goff	DET	285	16.8	8.4	25.9	150
13	Lamar Jackson	BAL	282	16.6	1.0	25.8	115
14	Dak Prescott	DAL	281	16.5	6.6	25.1	138
15	Matthew Stafford	LAR	280	16.5	9.1	25.9	239
16	Kyler Murray	MIN	270	15.9	6.8	26.2	86
17	Baker Mayfield	TB	260	15.3	6.7	25.4	122
18	Sam Darnold	SEA	255	15.0	5.6	24.1	99
19	Carson Wentz	MIN	253	14.9	4.9	23.6	100
20	C.J. Stroud	HOU	248	14.6	5.5	24.3	45
21	Daniel Jones	IND	247	14.5	5.7	24.4	82
22	Jacoby Brissett	ARI	245	14.4	4.9	23.3	95
23	Bryce Young	CAR	245	14.4	5.2	24.2	45
24	Aaron Rodgers	PIT	240	14.1	6.3	23.4	263
25	Justin Fields	KC	233	13.7	3.5	26.0	58
26	Jordan Love	GB	229	13.5	5.7	24.1	56
27	Malik Willis	MIA	213	12.5	0.4	23.4	18
28	Kirk Cousins	LV	210	12.3	2.9	21.6	173
29	Geno Smith	NYJ	196	11.5	2.4	21.0	107
30	Cam Ward	TEN	189	11.1	2.1	22.0	16
31	Tua Tagovailoa	ATL	186	10.9	2.4	21.2	77
32	Marcus Mariota	WAS	158	9.3	0.1	21.5	98
33	Trevor Siemian	ATL	157	9.3	1.3	18.5	39
34	Aidan O'Connell	LV	156	9.2	1.0	20.7	20
35	Jameis Winston	NYG	153	9.0	0.5	22.8	104
36	Davis Mills	HOU	152	8.9	0.6	20.9	42
37	Deshaun Watson	CLE	139	8.2	0.3	20.6	72
38	Will Levis	TEN	131	7.7	-0.0	19.1	20
39	Mitchell Trubisky	TEN	125	7.4	0.3	19.6	79
40	Tyrod Taylor	GB	124	7.3	0.8	21.6	89

Floor and ceiling are per game, not per season: the tenth and ninetieth percentile of a single week. Adding a floor across seventeen weeks would describe a year in which the same player is unlucky every Sunday, which is not a floor anybody should plan around.

Every player on this board has at least 16 prior games, a full season. Held off it for a shorter record: Jaxson Dart (13 games, would have ranked 16); Tyler Shough (10 games, would have ranked 18); Easton Stick (5 games, would have ranked 29); Michael Penix Jr. (13 games, would have ranked 32); J.J. McCarthy (9 games, would have ranked 36); Shedeur Sanders (7 games, would have ranked 37). The projections themselves are unchanged. The model still carries every one of them, and the full board is in the model’s own CSV.