Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

RBRunning back

Top 40 of 119 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 10 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 4 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	17	339	367	3
2	Bijan Robinson	ATL	17	330	371	2
3	Jonathan Taylor	IND	17	316	362	4
4	Christian McCaffrey	SF	17	298	417	1
5	De'Von Achane	MIA	16	288	323	5
6	Saquon Barkley	PHI	16	277	232	14
7	James Cook	BUF	17	270	302	6
8	Derrick Henry	BAL	17	266	280	8
9	Chase Brown	CIN	17	262	283	7
10	Kyren Williams	LAR	17	253	263	9
11	Ashton Jeanty	LV	16	228	233	13
12	Josh Jacobs	GB	15	221	237	12
13	Breece Hall	NYJ	16	216	208	19
14	Rico Dowdle	CAR	17	210	216	18
15	Javonte Williams	DAL	16	210	243	11
16	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	17	209	192	22
17	Travis Etienne	JAX	17	204	254	10
18	D'Andre Swift	CHI	16	200	229	15
19	Jaylen Warren	PIT	16	194	217	17
20	David Montgomery	DET	17	194	167	26
21	Tony Pollard	TEN	17	193	186	23
22	TreVeyon Henderson	NE	16	187	195	21
23	Rachaad White	TB	17	174	143	32
24	RJ Harvey	DEN	16	168	199	20
25	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	15	164	125	37
26	Kareem Hunt	KC	17	158	145	29
27	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	16	157	181	24
28	Quinshon Judkins	CLE	13	156	160	28
29	Bucky Irving	TB	10	154	139	33
30	Tyrone Tracy Jr.	NYG	15	152	161	27
31	Alvin Kamara	NO	11	148	101	46
32	Jordan Mason	MIN	16	146	129	34
33	Kenny Gainwell	PIT	17	142	221	16
34	Aaron Jones	MIN	12	141	119	41
35	Woody Marks	HOU	15	140	145	30
36	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	14	138	179	25
37	Kyle Monangai	CHI	16	137	145	31
38	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	WAS	16	131	126	36
39	J.K. Dobbins	DEN	10	128	116	43
40	Michael Carter	ARI	13	123	99	48

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.