Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

TETight end

Top 40 of 107 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 10 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 6 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	Trey McBride	ARI	17	254	316	1
2	Tyler Warren	IND	16	181	174	10
3	Travis Kelce	KC	17	181	193	3
4	Kyle Pitts	ATL	17	172	211	2
5	Mark Andrews	BAL	17	161	131	15
6	Brock Bowers	LV	12	159	176	9
7	Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	15	158	173	11
8	Dallas Goedert	PHI	15	158	185	5
9	Hunter Henry	NE	17	157	179	7
10	Juwan Johnson	NO	17	157	180	6
11	Jake Ferguson	DAL	17	148	188	4
12	George Kittle	SF	11	146	162	13
13	Dalton Schultz	HOU	17	145	178	8
14	Jonnu Smith	PIT	17	141	85	35
15	Cade Otton	TB	15	136	122	21
16	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	15	131	113	26
17	Colston Loveland	CHI	15	130	162	12
18	Oronde Gadsden II	LAC	14	130	122	22
19	Chig Okonkwo	TEN	17	124	124	20
20	Evan Engram	DEN	16	123	103	29
21	Taysom Hill	NO	13	122	42	58
22	Theo Johnson	NYG	15	120	128	17
23	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	15	120	114	25
24	Zach Ertz	WAS	13	120	126	18
25	AJ Barner	SEA	17	117	147	14
26	Sam LaPorta	DET	9	103	107	27
27	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	12	102	126	19
28	David Njoku	CLE	11	100	86	33
29	Brenton Strange	JAX	12	98	118	23
30	Cole Kmet	CHI	16	96	79	36
31	Dawson Knox	BUF	16	95	104	28
32	Mike Gesicki	CIN	12	94	71	41
33	Noah Fant	CIN	13	90	75	37
34	Isaiah Likely	BAL	12	86	62	45
35	Mason Taylor	NYJ	12	85	86	34
36	Tucker Kraft	GB	8	84	117	24
37	Noah Gray	KC	14	78	39	59
38	Gunnar Helm	TEN	15	77	89	31
39	Colby Parkinson	LAR	14	76	130	16
40	Austin Hooper	NE	13	75	59	47

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.