Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2026, before it happens

Every projection here rests on a record that stops at the end of 2025. Two limits are worth knowing before the board is used as a draft aid.

No rookies. A player with no prior NFL game has no history to project from, so he is absent rather than guessed at. This is a board of returning players.
Most of the schedule is not priced yet. The betting market has posted lines for part of the season. Where it has not, the input that carries kickers and defenses is missing, so those two boards are the softest here, and the accuracy tab shows why.

TETight end

Top 40 of 83 eligible

#	Player	Team	Season	Per game	Floor	Ceiling	Prior games
1	Trey McBride	ARI	260	15.3	5.2	21.8	58
2	George Kittle	SF	227	13.4	4.6	25.1	123
3	Kyle Pitts	ATL	216	12.7	4.7	23.3	77
4	Tucker Kraft	GB	213	12.5	3.2	21.3	38
5	Brock Bowers	LV	199	11.7	3.8	21.0	28
6	Sam LaPorta	DET	188	11.1	3.1	21.3	41
7	Juwan Johnson	NO	179	10.5	2.6	21.9	77
8	Dallas Goedert	PHI	177	10.4	2.7	18.9	105
9	Tyler Warren	IND	170	10.0	2.6	18.1	16
10	Travis Kelce	KC	166	9.7	2.7	18.4	190
11	Colby Parkinson	LAR	155	9.1	1.9	15.0	64
12	Brenton Strange	JAX	154	9.1	2.5	16.5	32
13	Hunter Henry	NE	153	9.0	2.4	17.7	128
14	Theo Johnson	NYG	152	8.9	1.9	16.2	25
15	Dalton Schultz	HOU	150	8.8	2.6	17.3	105
16	Cade Otton	TB	146	8.6	2.2	16.1	59
17	Michael Mayer	LV	140	8.2	1.5	14.3	36
18	Chig Okonkwo	WAS	137	8.0	2.0	14.4	64
19	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	133	7.8	1.0	16.7	40
20	AJ Barner	SEA	126	7.4	1.7	14.2	31
21	Greg Dulcich	MIA	125	7.3	1.5	15.2	24
22	Pat Freiermuth	PIT	122	7.2	1.6	15.1	73
23	Tyler Higbee	LAR	121	7.1	1.3	12.7	126
24	T.J. Hockenson	MIN	119	7.0	1.8	14.4	96
25	Mark Andrews	BAL	112	6.6	0.7	12.9	120
26	Dawson Knox	BUF	107	6.3	1.4	14.5	95
27	Luke Musgrave	GB	104	6.1	1.2	12.3	30
28	Isaiah Likely	NYG	101	5.9	1.2	12.4	54
29	Jake Ferguson	DAL	100	5.9	1.7	11.8	58
30	Evan Engram	DEN	99	5.8	0.3	13.4	123
31	Mike Gesicki	CIN	96	5.6	1.2	13.1	120
32	Cole Kmet	CHI	92	5.4	1.2	11.0	94
33	Daniel Bellinger	TEN	90	5.3	0.7	10.9	49
34	Darnell Washington	PIT	89	5.2	1.3	11.2	33
35	Elijah Higgins	ARI	89	5.2	1.1	12.3	42
36	Josh Oliver	MIN	85	5.0	0.5	9.7	61
37	Albert Okwuegbunam	LV	85	5.0	1.0	11.9	24
38	Brock Wright	DET	85	5.0	0.6	8.3	47
39	Hunter Long	JAX	84	4.9	0.7	9.8	21
40	Davis Allen	LAR	81	4.8	0.5	9.2	28

Floor and ceiling are per game, not per season: the tenth and ninetieth percentile of a single week. Adding a floor across seventeen weeks would describe a year in which the same player is unlucky every Sunday, which is not a floor anybody should plan around.

Every player on this board has at least 16 prior games, a full season. Held off it for a shorter record: Colston Loveland (15 games, would have ranked 4); Harold Fannin Jr. (15 games, would have ranked 7); Mason Taylor (12 games, would have ranked 24); Oronde Gadsden II (14 games, would have ranked 25); Jake Tonges (12 games, would have ranked 31); Terrance Ferguson (10 games, would have ranked 36); Gunnar Helm (15 games, would have ranked 37). The projections themselves are unchanged. The model still carries every one of them, and the full board is in the model’s own CSV.