Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2025, with the answers

The held-out season. The model never saw a single 2025 game while it was being fitted, so this is the projection standing next to what actually happened, which is the only version of a projection worth showing.

WRWide receiver

Top 40 of 213 projected

Of the twelve players this board put at the top, 8 finished in the real top twelve. The median player landed 12 places from where he was projected.

#	Player	Team	Games	Projected	Actual	Finished
1	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	16	317	314	4
2	Puka Nacua	LAR	16	304	375	1
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	17	295	324	3
4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	17	288	360	2
5	Justin Jefferson	MIN	17	266	202	21
6	DeVonta Smith	PHI	17	244	202	19
7	George Pickens	DAL	17	239	292	5
8	A.J. Brown	PHI	15	235	220	11
9	Zay Flowers	BAL	17	235	243	7
10	Jameson Williams	DET	17	234	220	12
11	Courtland Sutton	DEN	17	226	220	13
12	Ladd McConkey	LAC	16	219	181	29
13	Nico Collins	HOU	15	218	226	8
14	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	16	213	202	20
15	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	13	212	201	22
16	Tee Higgins	CIN	15	208	212	15
17	Stefon Diggs	NE	17	207	210	16
18	Davante Adams	LAR	14	205	223	9
19	Emeka Egbuka	TB	16	204	172	33
20	Drake London	ATL	12	204	202	18
21	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	16	200	218	14
22	Brian Thomas Jr.	JAX	14	200	139	40
23	DJ Moore	CHI	17	197	172	32
24	Chris Olave	NO	16	192	268	6
25	Michael Pittman	IND	17	192	202	17
26	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	17	189	121	50
27	Jauan Jennings	SF	15	186	173	31
28	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	16	185	194	23
29	Khalil Shakir	BUF	16	183	166	35
30	Keenan Allen	LAC	17	183	183	28
31	DK Metcalf	PIT	15	175	187	25
32	Romeo Doubs	GB	16	172	165	36
33	Deebo Samuel Sr.	WAS	16	172	188	24
34	Josh Downs	IND	16	170	138	41
35	Michael Wilson	ARI	17	166	221	10
36	Jordan Addison	MIN	14	165	135	43
37	Cooper Kupp	SEA	16	163	116	52
38	Quentin Johnston	LAC	13	161	171	34
39	Alec Pierce	IND	15	159	183	27
40	Xavier Worthy	KC	14	158	110	57

A finish six or more places from the projection is marked. Projected totals are the sum of that player’s weekly forecasts, each made with only what was known before that week.