Projection model

Fantasy Football Model

A 1-point-PPR projection for every position, trained on 27 seasons and measured against the only benchmark that matters.

Player-weeks trained on: 153,026; 1999–2025
Seasons back-tested: 20; each fitted only on what came before
Best gain over recent form: 15%; defense, where the market carries it
Worst gain over recent form: 7%; the honest number for a noisy target

2026, before it happens

Every projection here rests on a record that stops at the end of 2025. Two limits are worth knowing before the board is used as a draft aid.

No rookies. A player with no prior NFL game has no history to project from, so he is absent rather than guessed at. This is a board of returning players.
Most of the schedule is not priced yet. The betting market has posted lines for part of the season. Where it has not, the input that carries kickers and defenses is missing, so those two boards are the softest here, and the accuracy tab shows why.

WRWide receiver

Top 40 of 155 eligible

#	Player	Team	Season	Per game	Floor	Ceiling	Prior games
1	Puka Nacua	LAR	366	21.5	7.1	28.6	43
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	SEA	332	19.5	6.7	29.5	50
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	311	18.3	6.7	28.1	81
4	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	299	17.6	6.8	30.1	77
5	Chris Olave	NO	277	16.3	6.2	26.0	54
6	Zay Flowers	BAL	271	15.9	5.0	26.1	49
7	Rashee Rice	KC	270	15.9	6.1	25.0	27
8	Wan'Dale Robinson	TEN	268	15.8	5.3	24.7	53
9	A.J. Brown	NE	249	14.6	5.5	26.0	104
10	Michael Wilson	ARI	236	13.9	4.1	23.0	45
11	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	227	13.3	3.7	24.3	57
12	Malik Nabers	NYG	225	13.2	3.9	24.6	18
13	Justin Jefferson	MIN	223	13.1	3.6	23.4	93
14	Drake London	ATL	223	13.1	4.6	25.7	61
15	Nico Collins	HOU	220	12.9	3.9	23.1	65
16	Parker Washington	JAX	218	12.8	3.4	22.4	37
17	Jameson Williams	DET	216	12.7	3.7	24.0	49
18	George Pickens	DAL	215	12.7	3.8	23.7	64
19	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	208	12.2	3.4	22.0	93
20	Tetairoa McMillan	CAR	200	11.8	2.7	23.6	16
21	Tee Higgins	CIN	200	11.7	3.2	23.1	81
22	DK Metcalf	PIT	199	11.7	3.3	22.9	111
23	Courtland Sutton	DEN	199	11.7	3.5	23.0	113
24	Terry McLaurin	WAS	194	11.4	2.8	21.5	106
25	Christian Watson	GB	194	11.4	3.2	22.2	46
26	Jakobi Meyers	JAX	190	11.2	2.8	22.3	99
27	Alec Pierce	IND	185	10.9	2.7	21.5	63
28	Davante Adams	LAR	183	10.8	3.5	23.0	175
29	Jauan Jennings	MIN	179	10.5	2.8	21.0	71
30	Quentin Johnston	LAC	174	10.2	2.4	21.5	44
31	Ricky Pearsall	SF	173	10.2	2.2	19.5	19
32	Rome Odunze	CHI	172	10.1	2.2	21.4	28
33	Tre Tucker	LV	168	9.8	2.0	22.1	46
34	DeVonta Smith	PHI	165	9.7	2.4	19.3	79
35	Devaughn Vele	NO	164	9.6	2.1	19.0	21
36	Jaylen Waddle	DEN	163	9.6	2.4	19.0	77
37	Mike Evans	SF	163	9.6	2.3	19.6	175
38	Khalil Shakir	BUF	161	9.5	1.9	19.3	56
39	Jalen Coker	CAR	161	9.5	1.8	18.2	21
40	Ryan Flournoy	DAL	157	9.3	1.9	16.8	23

Floor and ceiling are per game, not per season: the tenth and ninetieth percentile of a single week. Adding a floor across seventeen weeks would describe a year in which the same player is unlucky every Sunday, which is not a floor anybody should plan around.

Every player on this board has at least 16 prior games, a full season. Held off it for a shorter record: Luther Burden III (14 games, would have ranked 26). The projections themselves are unchanged. The model still carries every one of them, and the full board is in the model’s own CSV.