Vantage

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Week 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM

NEatDET
Low confidencethis band has been right 57.3% of the timethe two models pick different sides
NEDET

Model picks

NE

Model spread

DET -2.1

Market spread

1.5

the market forecasts these games better than this model

How the teams compare

heaviest model weight first · 0–100, oriented so higher is always better

Expected Points Added per play· weight 11.8

Offense

NE43
DET67

EPA allowed

NE98
DET37

Passing efficiency· weight 8.0

Offense

NE35
DET74

EPA allowed

NE98
DET70

Drive-sustaining rate· weight 6.6

Offense

NE43
DET81

EPA allowed

NE93
DET61

Position-weighted availability score· weight 6.6

No data yet for this metric. Nothing has been published for these teams at this point in the week. It will fill in once it exists.

Sacks taken per dropback· weight 5.7

Offense

NE2
DET38

defensive rate

NE66
DET88

Rushing efficiency

Offense

NE77
DET25

EPA allowed

NE64
DET4

Completion % Over Expected

Offense

NE76
DET41

EPA allowed

NE89
DET73

Giveaways per play

Offense

NE54
DET60

defensive rate

NE61
DET11

20+ yard completions per attempt

Offense

NE97
DET90

EPA allowed

NE100
DET48

This chart is not the model. It shows the inputs that read well as a side-by-side. 7 of the model’s heaviest-weighted inputs have no head-to-head form and are not drawn here: point differential, overall matchup, team win rate, pass matchup among them. The full list of all 55 is on the methodology tab.

Around the game

  • SchemeNE

    NE faces a 4-3 front

    DET's roster profiles as a 4-3 base defense.

    Base front is inferred from roster composition (agrees with snap data at Spearman 0.50). Most teams play nickel by default, so this is a weak descriptor: measured defensive efficiency carries far more weight in the model.

  • Recent formDET

    DET -0.1 pts/game trend

    Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), DET has been being outscored by opponents by 0.1 points per game.

  • Recent formNE

    NE +6.6 pts/game trend

    Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), NE has been outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per game.

  • Context

    Neutral site

    No home-field advantage applied.

Every figure here comes from Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features), validated walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next). For how the model is built, what the metrics mean and how it has actually performed, read the methodology.