This chart is not the model. It shows the inputs that read well as a side-by-side. 7 of the model’s heaviest-weighted inputs have no head-to-head form and are not drawn here: point differential, overall matchup, team win rate, pass matchup among them. The full list of all 55 is on the methodology tab.

Around the game

• RestPIT

  PIT coming off a bye

  14 days of rest before kickoff.

• SchemeCIN

  CIN faces a 4-3 front

  PIT's roster profiles as a 4-3 base defense.

  Base front is inferred from roster composition (agrees with snap data at Spearman 0.50). Most teams play nickel by default, so this is a weak descriptor: measured defensive efficiency carries far more weight in the model.

• SchemePIT

  PIT faces a 3-4 front

  CIN's roster profiles as a 3-4 base defense (nose tackle present, OLB-heavy edge group).

  Base front is inferred from roster composition (agrees with snap data at Spearman 0.50). Most teams play nickel by default, so this is a weak descriptor: measured defensive efficiency carries far more weight in the model.

• Recent formCIN

  CIN +2.0 pts/game trend

  Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), CIN has been outscoring opponents by 2.0 points per game.

• Recent formPIT

  PIT -3.9 pts/game trend

  Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), PIT has been being outscored by opponents by 3.9 points per game.

• VenueCIN

  CIN at home

  Home teams have won 54.7% of games in the training window; the model prices this in rather than applying a fixed bonus.

• RestPIT

  PIT holds a rest advantage

  7 more days of recovery than the opponent.

• Context

  Divisional matchup

  Familiar opponents; historically tighter margins.