Vantage

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Week 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM

MINatSF
Low confidencethis band has been right 57.3% of the time
MINSF

Model picks

SF

Model spread

SF -6.6

Market spread

4.5

the market forecasts these games better than this model

How the teams compare

heaviest model weight first · 0–100, oriented so higher is always better

Expected Points Added per play· weight 11.8

Offense

MIN11
SF52

EPA allowed

MIN99
SF9

Passing efficiency· weight 8.0

Offense

MIN4
SF57

EPA allowed

MIN100
SF24

Drive-sustaining rate· weight 6.6

Offense

MIN38
SF89

EPA allowed

MIN88
SF14

Position-weighted availability score· weight 6.6

No data yet for this metric. Nothing has been published for these teams at this point in the week. It will fill in once it exists.

Sacks taken per dropback· weight 5.7

Offense

MIN1
SF77

defensive rate

MIN100
SF18

Rushing efficiency

Offense

MIN71
SF50

EPA allowed

MIN84
SF4

Completion % Over Expected

Offense

MIN22
SF82

EPA allowed

MIN100
SF30

Giveaways per play

Offense

MIN31
SF31

defensive rate

MIN69
SF2

20+ yard completions per attempt

Offense

MIN13
SF41

EPA allowed

MIN99
SF91

This chart is not the model. It shows the inputs that read well as a side-by-side. 7 of the model’s heaviest-weighted inputs have no head-to-head form and are not drawn here: point differential, overall matchup, team win rate, pass matchup among them. The full list of all 55 is on the methodology tab.

Around the game

  • SchemeMIN

    MIN faces a 4-3 front

    SF's roster profiles as a 4-3 base defense.

    Base front is inferred from roster composition (agrees with snap data at Spearman 0.50). Most teams play nickel by default, so this is a weak descriptor: measured defensive efficiency carries far more weight in the model.

  • Recent formSF

    SF -2.4 pts/game trend

    Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), SF has been being outscored by opponents by 2.4 points per game.

  • Recent formMIN

    MIN +4.5 pts/game trend

    Over the last 10 games (exponentially weighted), MIN has been outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per game.

  • Context

    Neutral site

    No home-field advantage applied.

Every figure here comes from Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features), validated walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next). For how the model is built, what the metrics mean and how it has actually performed, read the methodology.