Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 14
15 games · 3 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- MINatNEThu, Dec 10, 8:15 PMNE 68%NE -3.7High confidence
- CHIatMIASun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMMIA 55%MIA -3.6Coin flip, no call
- ATLatCLESun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMCLE 51%CLE -1.9Coin flip, no call
- NOatCARSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMCAR 56%CAR -2.7Low confidence
- HOUatWASSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMWAS 64%WAS -4.1Medium confidence
- DENatNYJSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMNYJ 66%NYJ -4.9High confidence
- INDatPHISun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMPHI 57%PHI -3.1Low confidence
- TENatDETSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMDET 58%DET -3.4Low confidence
- TBatBALSun, Dec 13, 1:00 PMBAL 63%BAL -3.1Medium confidence
- LACatLVSun, Dec 13, 4:05 PMLV 63%LV -2.9Medium confidence
- NYGatSEASun, Dec 13, 4:25 PMSEA 67%SEA -5.5High confidence
- KCatCINSun, Dec 13, 4:25 PMCIN 63%CIN -4.6Medium confidence
- LARatSFSun, Dec 13, 4:25 PMSF 54%SF -2.9Coin flip, no call
- BUFatGBSun, Dec 13, 8:20 PMGB 55%GB -1.7Low confidence
- PITatJAXMon, Dec 14, 8:15 PMJAX 58%JAX -3.1Low confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)