Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 15
16 games · 5 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- SFatLACThu, Dec 17, 8:15 PMLAC 59%LAC -1.9Low confidence
- SEAatPHISat, Dec 19, 5:00 PMPHI 55%PHI -3.2Low confidence
- CHIatBUFSat, Dec 19, 8:20 PMBUF 63%BUF -5.7Medium confidence
- ATLatWASSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMWAS 58%WAS -3.6Low confidence
- INDatTENSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMTEN 54%TEN -2.2Coin flip, no call
- NOatTBSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMTB 56%TB -3.2Low confidence
- JAXatHOUSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMHOU 58%HOU -2.7Low confidence
- BALatPITSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMPIT 52%PIT -2.6Coin flip, no call
- CLEatNYGSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMNYG 67%NYG -5.2High confidence
- CINatCARSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMCAR 60%CAR -2.6Low confidence
- MIAatGBSun, Dec 20, 1:00 PMGB 59%GB -2.3Low confidence
- NYJatARISun, Dec 20, 4:05 PMARI 59%ARI -1.1Low confidence
- DALatLARSun, Dec 20, 4:25 PMLAR 53%LAR -2.2Coin flip, no call
- DENatLVSun, Dec 20, 4:25 PMLV 50%LV -2.6Coin flip, no call
- DETatMINSun, Dec 20, 8:20 PMMIN 55%MIN -4.2Coin flip, no call
- NEatKCMon, Dec 21, 8:15 PMKC 57%KC -2.9Low confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)