Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 12
16 games · 5 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- GBatLARWed, Nov 25, 8:00 PMLAR 70%LAR -7.1High confidence
- CHIatDETThu, Nov 26, 1:00 PMDET 55%DET -1.9Low confidence
- PHIatDALThu, Nov 26, 4:30 PMDAL 55%PHI -0.2Coin flip, no call
- KCatBUFThu, Nov 26, 8:20 PMBUF 62%BUF -3.8Medium confidence
- DENatPITFri, Nov 27, 3:00 PMDEN 55%DEN -0.0Low confidence
- BALatHOUSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMHOU 60%HOU -3.0Medium confidence
- ATLatMINSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMATL 52%MIN -2.2Coin flip, no call
- NYJatMIASun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMNYJ 51%MIA -2.0Coin flip, no call
- NOatCINSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMCIN 67%CIN -5.4High confidence
- LVatCLESun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMCLE 59%CLE -2.1Low confidence
- NYGatINDSun, Nov 29, 1:00 PMIND 67%IND -5.3High confidence
- TENatJAXSun, Nov 29, 4:05 PMJAX 55%JAX -3.2Low confidence
- WASatARISun, Nov 29, 4:25 PMARI 56%ARI -0.7Low confidence
- SEAatSFSun, Nov 29, 4:25 PMSEA 51%SF -2.0Coin flip, no call
- NEatLACSun, Nov 29, 8:20 PMLAC 54%LAC -2.5Coin flip, no call
- CARatTBMon, Nov 30, 8:15 PMTB 58%TB -3.3Low confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)