Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 16
16 games · 4 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- HOUatPHIThu, Dec 24, 8:15 PMPHI 61%PHI -5.1Medium confidence
- GBatCHIFri, Dec 25, 1:00 PMCHI 54%CHI -2.4Coin flip, no call
- BUFatDENFri, Dec 25, 4:30 PMBUF 54%BUF -2.0Coin flip, no call
- LARatSEAFri, Dec 25, 8:15 PMLAR 52%SEA -0.3Coin flip, no call
- ARIatNOSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMNO 63%NO -4.6Medium confidence
- NEatNYJSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMNYJ 59%NYJ -4.4Low confidence
- CINatINDSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMIND 64%IND -3.7Medium confidence
- WASatMINSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMWAS 50%MIN -2.4Coin flip, no call
- CLEatBALSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMBAL 61%BAL -4.6Medium confidence
- CARatPITSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMPIT 60%PIT -4.6Medium confidence
- LACatMIASun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMMIA 58%MIA -3.6Low confidence
- TBatATLSun, Dec 27, 1:00 PMATL 58%ATL -2.3Low confidence
- TENatLVSun, Dec 27, 4:05 PMLV 56%LV -2.7Low confidence
- SFatKCSun, Dec 27, 4:25 PMKC 55%KC -1.7Low confidence
- JAXatDALSun, Dec 27, 8:20 PMDAL 64%DAL -3.6Medium confidence
- NYGatDETMon, Dec 28, 8:15 PMDET 60%DET -4.2Medium confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)