Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 2
16 games · 1 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- DETatBUFThu, Sep 17, 8:15 PMBUF 70%BUF -4.8High confidence
- NOatBALSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMBAL 76%BAL -8.5High confidence
- CARatATLSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMATL 63%ATL -1.4Medium confidence
- PHIatTENSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMPHI 66%PHI -6.6High confidence
- CINatHOUSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMHOU 65%HOU -1.9Medium confidence
- PITatNESun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMNE 72%NE -5.8High confidence
- CLEatTBSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMTB 72%TB -6.6High confidence
- GBatNYJSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMGB 54%GB -3.2Coin flip, no call
- MINatCHISun, Sep 20, 1:00 PMCHI 65%CHI -3.4High confidence
- LVatLACSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PMLAC 73%LAC -8.0High confidence
- JAXatDENSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PMDEN 63%DEN -1.5Medium confidence
- MIAatSFSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PMSF 83%SF -11.7High confidence
- WASatDALSun, Sep 20, 4:25 PMDAL 63%DAL -3.7Medium confidence
- SEAatARISun, Sep 20, 4:25 PMSEA 79%SEA -13.7High confidence
- INDatKCSun, Sep 20, 8:20 PMKC 73%KC -6.2High confidence
- NYGatLARMon, Sep 21, 8:15 PMLAR 79%LAR -10.2High confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)