Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 17
16 games · 7 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- BALatCINThu, Dec 31, 8:15 PMCIN 61%CIN -3.7Medium confidence
- BUFatMIASun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMBUF 52%MIA -1.7Coin flip, no call
- PITatTENSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMTEN 55%TEN -2.5Low confidence
- MINatNYJSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMNYJ 66%NYJ -4.8High confidence
- WASatJAXSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMJAX 51%JAX -2.9Coin flip, no call
- INDatCLESun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMCLE 55%CLE -2.1Coin flip, no call
- SEAatCARSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMCAR 53%CAR -1.7Coin flip, no call
- KCatLACSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMLAC 54%LAC -2.8Coin flip, no call
- NYGatDALSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMDAL 64%DAL -4.5Medium confidence
- LARatTBSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMTB 55%TB -2.8Coin flip, no call
- NOatATLSun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMATL 62%ATL -3.4Medium confidence
- DENatNESun, Jan 3, 1:00 PMNE 59%NE -4.3Low confidence
- LVatARISun, Jan 3, 4:05 PMARI 56%ARI -1.9Low confidence
- DETatCHISun, Jan 3, 4:25 PMCHI 59%CHI -4.1Low confidence
- PHIatSFSun, Jan 3, 8:20 PMSF 53%SF -2.4Coin flip, no call
- HOUatGBMon, Jan 4, 8:15 PMGB 58%GB -2.4Low confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)