Win probability
Game Prediction Model
- 20seasons of data2006–2025
- 5,133games trained on4,166 more held back for testing
- 64.7%called correctlyon games the model never saw
- ±2.1points of calibration driftwhen it says 70%, it happens about 70% of the time
23.2%decided by 3 points or fewer
47.5%decided by 7 points or fewer
8points, the median margin
A quarter of NFL games come down to a field goal, which is the ceiling every forecaster runs into. Predicting every game decided by more than a touchdown perfectly, and coin-flipping the rest, would still only reach 76.3%. Across 5,133 games, 2006–2025.
Week 5
15 games · 0 of them land in the coin-flip band, where the model has no usable call
- TBatDALThu, Oct 8, 8:15 PMDAL 67%DAL -3.3High confidence
- PHIatJAXSun, Oct 11, 9:30 AMPHI 57%PHI -2.4Low confidence
- HOUatTENSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMHOU 61%HOU -4.5Medium confidence
- INDatPITSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMPIT 63%PIT -3.4Medium confidence
- LVatNESun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMNE 78%NE -9.4High confidence
- MINatNOSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMNO 57%MIN -0.7Low confidence
- CINatMIASun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMCIN 66%CIN -6.7High confidence
- NYGatWASSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMWAS 62%WAS -3.0Medium confidence
- CLEatNYJSun, Oct 11, 1:00 PMNYJ 65%NYJ -3.3Medium confidence
- DENatLACSun, Oct 11, 4:05 PMLAC 55%LAC -2.4Low confidence
- CHIatGBSun, Oct 11, 4:25 PMGB 56%GB -2.2Low confidence
- DETatARISun, Oct 11, 4:25 PMDET 70%DET -9.3High confidence
- SFatSEASun, Oct 11, 4:25 PMSEA 64%SEA -3.9Medium confidence
- BALatATLSun, Oct 11, 8:20 PMBAL 57%BAL -5.6Low confidence
- BUFatLARMon, Oct 12, 8:15 PMLAR 61%LAR -2.7Medium confidence
Calibrated Logistic Regression (core + market features) · walk-forward by season (train on all prior seasons, test on the next)